As you have likely heard, there is a red wave of politics on the horizon, meaning the upcoming November midterm election season is expected to see more Republican wins than Democratic ones. At the very least, several seats in both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are expected to flip.
And that means, due to current majority splits, both legislative houses could be retaken by the GOP.
But as several experts are saying, it could be much worse than that, at least for the Democrats.
In fact, according to a recent Axios article, the ensuing 2022 midterms, combined with the following 2024 presidential election, could end up being the “Democrats’ worst Trump nightmare.”
Simon Bazelon, a political science and philosophy student at Yale University, as well as the author of Out of the Ordinary Substack, says that the left-leaning party is “sleepwalking into disaster, with no plan to avert it.”
He explains, in part, what I did above, saying that due to the currently held slimmest of majorities in the Senate, the Upper House could, in fact, be flipped this year. Bazelon says that “between 46 and 47 Senate seats” will be controlled by the Democrats after the midterms, depending on a few key choices.
Merrill Matthews of The Hill says it could be even worse than that in the House. He points specifically to a recent study by Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, who predicts more of a “red tsunami.” According to his data, “Republicans could win a healthy majority in the House in 2022 – perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century.”
A number of polls explain why this is more than possible.
For starters, FiveThirtyEight pointed out that for the majority of the last few decades, Americans have tended to lean toward the Democratic Party, even if that majority gap was “small.” Gallup added that the last time the nation had a Republican majority was back in 1991 and only came after the U.S. won the Persian Gulf war. And even then, that majority was only held for about a year.
However, in 2021, quite a massive shift occurred. Currently, some 47 percent of Americans identify as Republican or have a preference for the GOP. Only 42 percent seem to favor the Democrats. Since Republicans rarely have the majority, a five percent lead is a rather large one.
And Matthews says that shift is more than likely to show itself in the upcoming congressional races.
Even devout Democrats and Biden supporters see the change and are terrified. Biden’s campaign pollster, John Anzalone, for instance, says this is “the worst political environment” he’s seen in 30 years of being a consultant.
But what’s even worse than that is the realization that both the shift in politics and the upcoming red wave could also mean a change in White House political parties. Indeed, it could even open the doors to allow Donald Trump to retake the Oval Office.
As Bazelon confirms, the Democratic Party is not in very good standing right now with the American people. And much of that has to do with Democratic President Joe Biden’s failures, which include a hemorrhaging southern border, growing inflation, and even more racial division than when Trump was our Commander in Chief.
According to FiveThirtyEight, only about 42 percent of Americans like what Biden is doing. And as inflation, gas prices, and taxes continue to rise, that number is likely to only go down.
Naturally, this means a population that already favors the Republican Party is likely to put someone like Trump back in the White House. And as you well know, Trump has made several hints that he might just run again.
To pour salt on the wound, Biden’s disapproval rating could also lead to even more Democratic Senate and House losses come 2024. It is suggested that nearly all Democratic senators in states where Biden either lost in or just barely won in 2020 could find themselves without a job.
As David Shor, a Democratic data scientist, tweeted in early April, “Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party’s coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a *filibuster proof trifecta* with a minority of the vote.”
Oh, that we should see the day…