As the Russian campaign into Ukraine wages on, experts don’t see their forces being able to last much longer. With minimal advancements being made into the country, they are unable to adequately resupply their forward troops, and the Ukrainian people refuse to just hand over their rations. They are instead fighting the Russians back from all sides and in every way, they can possibly conceive.
Their expectations of the Ukrainian people greatly underestimated their capabilities and resolve to defend themselves. This expectation of a quick and easy victory has them rolling into battle without much in the way of supplies.
Instead of extra ammunition and rations, they brought dress uniforms in anticipation of a victory parade in Kyiv. This mistake caused by an overinflated ego from Putin and his commanders has cost them dearly.
Speaking with Fox News, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges sees this as a great weakness Ukraine could easily exploit.
“I don’t think we should overreact to this. The Russians, I think, are about ten days away from what is called the culminating point, when they just no longer have the ammunition nor the manpower to keep up their assault. I think we keep pouring it on, and the Russians culminate.”
If he’s right and Russia is forced to withdraw the national embarrassment from losing to Ukraine and its people would nearly if not completely destroy any credibility that Putin has left. Despite the photos of him riding shirtless across the Russian wilderness and hunting, the same outdoorsy resolve he shows is not the same resolve his commanders and troops have. They showed up unprepared, and without the determination to win.
From across the country, there have been reports of Russian soldiers just turning themselves over to Ukrainian citizens or their military. This isn’t a war they wanted, and it’s not one they are prepared to fight.
Try as they might to push forward, Ukraine isn’t that easy to take, and they are prepared to defend their homeland as Russia continues to pepper them with rockets, mortars, and guided bombs. These shots however are largely ineffective in getting them to progress the war.
Ivan F. Ingram is a USMC veteran who spent 24 years with them as a Special Operations Officer. The knowledge of warfare he gained during that timeframe is incredible, and he shared some of that with Task and Purpose back on March 10th.
“Many Russian units are running short on fuel and ammunition. A forty-mile convoy on single-lane roads is a combined arms engagement dream. I can only imagine artillery instructors at Fort Sill, where the U.S. military trains its artillery forces rolling their sleeves with glee to set up sand table training, never mind free and open engagement areas for aerial-delivered munitions from platforms like the A-10 Warthog, which would be well-suited to striking a long-sprawling convoy.”
In essence, he like many other experienced warfighters do not see the Russian failure to advance as a surprise at all. He knows all too well what they are capable of, and sees this miscalculation by the Russians as something American servicemembers can use as a training tool to plan for better advancements and to make more accurate planning in the future.
As the supplies continue to dwindle, more and more reports of Russians just walking away or surrendering, selling their fuel to Ukrainian farmers, and other signs of being ill-prepared flow in. The Russians just don’t know what to do with themselves in Ukraine, and the lack of better planning or an ability to adjust plans in the heat of battle is a gaping hole in their plans.
Until this is resolved though, the people of Ukraine, as well as the Russian forces, will continue to suffer heavy losses. The sooner Putin decides to pick up his tanks and go home the better.