Trump’s last year of the presidency has been hard. A pandemic hit, taking the economy with it. It’s only natural to see a downward trend because of the unemployment rates and so many people being forced inside as a way to protect their health.
When it comes time to hit the polls in November, is this downward trend really a problem for the Trump reelection campaign? Although the Democrats would be answering this with an emphatic yes, the reality is that it’s not as devastating as people want to make it out to be. Part of it has to do with the other candidates that will be on the poll for the general election.
His approval rating is done, with an approval average of only 40 in comparison to the 47.9 held by Obama and the 49.4 held by G.W. Bush. However, neither of them were dealing with a pandemic, either.
Let’s take a look at the problem Trump is having in the polls. Regardless of the poll – CNN, NPR, Emerson, The Hill…they all show Trump as down in comparison to Biden. By how much? It depends on the poll. However, the average is around 8 points in favor of Biden.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump at this point in time by about 1.5 points. He managed to overcome the gap to win the presidency…but can he win the presidency with an 8-point gap?
Biden’s been maintaining a continual gap on Trump instead of the back and forth that happened in 2016 with Clinton. Here’s the thing that no one really wants to talk about, though: Biden isn’t a great candidate. He’s kind of like the leftovers in the back of the fridge. He’ll be fine when he’s warmed up, but he’s not anyone’s first choice.
Voting against Trump is what’s cool. When the polls are out, people will say that they’re against Trump because it’s what they feel they need to do. In November, when it’s time to mark down a presidential candidate on the ballot, things will be different. Just take a look at literally any social media post where someone mentions Biden.
There are Dems who say they’re not going to vote for him. They would rather stay at home on election day than to have to fill in the bubble for Biden. However, CNN and the rest of the polls don’t provide that option. They ask, who are you going to vote for: Trump or Biden. People say Biden because they aren’t going to vote for Trump.
This is what the Dems failed to calculate in 2016. Trump managed to win the popular vote because too many people straight up didn’t want Hillary Clinton. They’ve had four years to get over their anger and frustration at not winning and still didn’t manage to get a decent candidate.
Placing Biden into the running was accidental. Everyone else dropped out, so Biden has no choice but to go up against Trump. Even if Biden decided to simply enjoy his retirement years, the DNC would force him into the elections.
When people head to the voting centers, they’ll have options. They can go to the voting center or choose not to vote at all. A vote that would have gone to a Democrat but they couldn’t bear voting for Biden will be a vote for Trump.
Then, there are all of the independents who think that if enough of them gain forces that their vote will really matter. A candidate like Jo Jorgensen may end up getting some of the votes that CNN and the other polls aren’t factoring in right now.
The downward trend that Trump has in the polls should be at least a bit concerning. But, as the economy starts to come back from the pandemic, so will the approval ratings.
We’ve got time. And, when it comes down to it, Trump is the better, tried, and true option in comparison to Biden, otherwise known as the DNC’s puppet.